Evidence · Claim check

Do loyalty programs change buying behaviour?

Contradicted by the evidence

Probably not by much, but the evidence is thin. The one direct measurement reviewed here, a panel study of an Australian loyalty program, found that members' repeat buying deviated only slightly from what brand size predicts, with practically no excess loyalty. That result rests on a single dataset and one school of research, and there is no direct evidence for B2B markets.

The claim

A loyalty program substantially increases repeat purchasing and creates above-average (excess) loyalty among its members.

Why it could be true: A program rewards purchases that would largely have happened anyway. Heavy buyers select themselves into the program, which creates the appearance of an effect without any change in the buying pattern.

Verdict by context

Consumer packaged goods retail: Contradicted by the evidence, low certainty. The contradiction rests on one Australian panel dataset (the FlyBuys program) and a conceptual overview from the same school of research. Independent evidence is missing among the studies reviewed here, so certainty is low and the question is not settled. Put plainly: a strong effect was not confirmed where it was measured properly, but such measurements are few.
B2B markets: Too little evidence, not assessed certainty. There is no direct evidence among the studies reviewed here. B2B relationships are contractual, with a small repertoire of suppliers, so the mechanism seen in consumer goods may not carry over. For B2B loyalty programs, the honest answer is that evidence is absent.

The evidence

Role	Finding	Study	Design
Contradicts	In the Australian FlyBuys program, members' repeat buying deviated only slightly from Dirichlet model benchmarks, and excess loyalty practically did not occur. This is the only direct measurement among the studies reviewed here.^[1]	Sharp & Sharp (1997)	Observational, consumer panel
Sets limits	A conceptual analysis of three models of loyalty and of what can realistically be expected from loyalty programs. It comes from the same school, the Ehrenberg-Bass Institute, so it is not an independent confirmation.^[2]	Uncles et al. (2003)	Conceptual
Context	Shows the value of ultra-light buyers, which helps explain why loyalty programs target the wrong group of buyers.^[3]	Hossain et al. (2023)	Observational

What this does not say

It does not judge other goals of a program, such as customer data, personalisation or retail media. It assesses only changes in buying behaviour.
It does not cover key B2B partnerships, which are contractual and work through a different mechanism.

Relevant work not yet reviewed here

Leenheer et al. (2007), International Journal of Research in Marketing: corrects for self-selection into programs and finds a small net effect.
Liu (2007), Journal of Marketing: the longitudinal effect of a loyalty program.

References

Byron Sharp, Anne Sharp (1997). Loyalty Programs and Their Impact on Repeat-Purchase Loyalty Patterns. International Journal of Research in Marketing.
Mark D. Uncles, Grahame R. Dowling, Kathy Hammond (2003). Customer Loyalty and Customer Loyalty Programs. Journal of Consumer Marketing.
Afsana Hossain, Zachary William Anesbury, Carl Driesener, Giang Trinh (2023). Valuing the Contribution of Ultra-Light Buyers. Journal of Consumer Behaviour.

Bibliographic details only. Follow the DOI to read each study at its publisher.

Building on this evidence?

ScholarSignal checks a new research idea against the closest existing work and an editor rubric, and tells you whether the contribution is new enough for the journals you target.

Evaluate my idea for free